Two Competing Hypotheses for AI

April 15, 2026

  • ai
  • agents
  • product

I have two very competing hypotheses for where we're headed with AI:

  1. Working with agent orchestration (not chatbots) will be equivalent to working with docs/sheets/etc.

  2. End users will still want tools tailored exactly to their use cases, so agent orchestration stays a background product for power users.

If all agents are fundamentally coding agents (and that seems like a likely outcome), then 1 is true.

In that scenario, consumer products are a dead end.

But if the coding agent abstraction is not right for most users, and tools are higher-level abstractions, then the doom is uncalled for.

← All shorts